KEY POINTS
Beef prices are rising because cattle are scarce: The U.S. cattle herd has fallen to 86.2 million head, the smallest in 75 years.
Imports have not solved the problem: U.S. beef import volume is up 86% since 2021, yet beef prices are up 56% over the same period.
America has lost its ranching base: The U.S. had 732,123 cattle ranches in 2022, down 17% from 2017, with over 450,000 lost cattle ranches since 1997.
Ranchers are not a high-profit industry: In 2024, 71% of farms and ranches had operating profit margins below 10%.
Rebuilding domestic supply is the only durable way to bring prices down, but ranchers need long-term confidence to expand, especially with current conditions:
About 75% of the U.S. beef cow herd is currently in drought; New World screwworm has disrupted Mexican live-cattle flows; and
Four meatpackers control roughly 85% of the fed-cattle market.
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